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It has been a little over a year since we discussed how Florida may legalize for adult-use. In that review of the market there, we pointed to the strong but slowing patient growth. The state is still seeing growth in the number of patients, but it is the lowest it has ever been. Florida releases data each week on its program, and this week’s report indicated that there are currently 855,267 qualified patients in the program, up 11.6% from a year ago:
When we reviewed the market in September last year, growth was a record low 22.0%. We pointed out that MMJ products were growing at that rate roughly, but flower units were growing much slower. In the week ending 11/02, MMJ product unit volume grew 17% from a year ago. Flower volume expanded 32%. Florida releases only units and not total revenue, but we believe, based on BDSA data, that revenue in Florida is growing much more slowly. In September, total revenue expanded just 7.5% according to their estimate based on point-of-sale data.
There are 603 dispensaries, and Trulieve continues to lead with 131 (21.7%). The top 5 operators, which include Verano, Ayr Wellness, Curaleaf and Surterra, have 61.4% of the dispensaries in the state. A year ago, there were 489 dispensaries open, so there has been growth of 23.3%, which is double the patient growth! The top 5 then, which are the same companies, had 67.7% of the dispensaries, so there has been more growth among the smaller companies.
Florida is a big state with a large cannabis market that is dominated by publicly-traded MSOs. The growth in patients is slowing but still high, but the revenue is growing slower than the patient growth. We think that the competitive pressures are strong. The state still may legalize, and this would help, but the medical market is very large at almost 4% of Florida’s total population.
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