You’re reading this week’s edition of the New Cannabis Ventures weekly newsletter, which we have been publishing since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve as well as links to the week’s most important news. We no longer send these by email as we did in the past, but we post this and all of the newsletters on our website here.
Friends,
Two weeks ago, this newsletter discussed how the MSOS ETF had limped into 2026, and MSOS has fallen further. At $4.52 yesterday at the close, 0.4% above its NAV, is is down 4.2% so far in 2026. This is slightly less of a decline than the 4.9% drop in the Global Cannabis Stock Index, but MSOS is lower today than it was two weeks ago. The drop from two weeks ago is less than the decline in the Global Cannabis Stock Index, which was unchanged then from the year-end close on 1/7.
This week, there has not been much news for the cannabis sector. On Tuesday morning, after a long weekend ended, Curaleaf disclosed its “strong Q4” in a press release issued two hours before the market opened. On 1/16, CURLF had closed at $2.66, and yesterday, two full days of trading after this press release, the stock closed at $2.43, down 8.6%. This drop leaves Curaleaf down 3.6% year-to-date.
The press release stated that Curaleaf had generated revenue in excess of $330 million in Q4, which was growth of 1% from a year earlier excluding the discontinued hemp operations. While the projected revenue was slightly above the consensus, the growth was not strong.
The company did note that its projected Q4 adjusted gross margin of 48.5% was unchanged from a year earlier, but it did not give any updated on its adjusted EBITDA. Investors will have to wait until the company reports its financials in early March. Analysts have been projecting that adjusted EBITDA for Q4 will be $66.9 million, which would be a decline of 12%.
One very big thing that was not addressed was the maturing debt that was detailed in the newsletter published on New Year’s Day. Curaleaf has now issued five press releases this year but has not mentioned refinancing the debt at all:
As I warned three weeks ago, if Curaleaf can’t refinance the debt, it could sell stock. CURLF trades 257% above the all-time low set in April at $0.68. The stock is down less than MSOS, which has 21.9% exposure to CURLF, in 2026 so far, but it is up a lot over the past year. MSOS has gained 28.1%, while CURLF is up 63.1%. Of course, both are down a lot over the past five years.
For investors who want exposure to MSOs, there are better choices than CURLF in my view. 280E taxation may go away if rescheduling takes place, but it has been more than a month since the Executive Order was issued with no signs of how it will play out. I continue to think that there are better ways to invest in cannabis than the MSOs. For those watching the market, this could become a very good case study of how potential bad news plays out very slowly.
Sincerely,
Alan
New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. We did not publish any news this past week.
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