You’re reading this week’s edition of the New Cannabis Ventures weekly newsletter, which we have been publishing since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve as well as links to the week’s most important news. We no longer send these by email as we did in the past, but we post this and all of the newsletters on our website here.
Friends,
Canadian LP stocks have been quite strong this year. I will provide an update on Friday regarding the action in November, but the NCV Canadian Cannabis LP Index ended today at 59.32, which leaves the 13-stock index up 18.4% in 2025. Some readers may attribute the rally to Village Farms, but Village Farms is not in the index due to it being listed only on the NASDAQ. Village Farms is in the NCV Global Cannabis Stock Index, which is down 11.1% year-to-date. It is also in MSOS, which is down 10.0% in 2025 so far.
I have written very optimistically about some of the Canadian LPs in the past few years and very negatively about some of the others. Within the past eighteen months, the newsletter articles that have been about Canadian LPs include:
- Investors Should Not Dive Into Canadian Cannabis on 5/10/24
- MSOs Could Do Better But Are Not the Only Cannabis Stocks to Buy on 7/5/24
- These Canadian LP Stocks Should Rally on 8/22/24 (about Cronos Group, Organigram and Village Farms)
- Canadian LP Bargains on 9/19/24 (about Organigram and Village Farms)
- Don’t Dread Tilray’s Weakness on 10/10/24
- The Main Reason Canadian Cannabis Stocks Are Falling on 1/30/25
- Sell the MSOS ETF to Buy Canadian LPs on 4/9/25
- Another Big Win for a Cannabis Stock on 5/22 (about Village Farms)
- Canadian Cannabis Is the Place to Be 0n 6/12/25
- Cautious on Canadian Cannabis Companies on 7/24/25
- Tilray Is a Dangerous Stock on 8/20/25
It has been a bit more than three months since the Canadian LPs were the focus of this newsletter, and I want to provide an update today as we head into year-end with these stocks outpacing the cannabis sector. At 420 Investor, I include 5 Canadian LPs on my 19-stock Focus List, including Canopy Growth, Cronos Group, Organigram, Tilray Brands and Village Farms. These are all in the Global Cannabis Stock Index, as are Aurora Cannabis and SNDL too. Here is how they have performed since 8/8, the day before the news hit about potential rescheduling in the U.S.:
Here are my current thoughts for each:
- Canopy Growth: It was nasty, but all of that dilution fixed their balance sheet. I don’t see the stock, which is down 56.0% in 2025, as being that attractive, and I remain concerned about their American operations that are held as an investment rather than as part of their operations (to keep the NASDAQ listing).
- Cronos Group: I am not a fan of much about it besides its massive cash and the ownership by Altria of such a large portion. With that said, it is 6.7% of my model portfolio at 420 Investor despite it being the strongest LP of the five, up 23.0% year-to-date.
- Organigram: I like the balance sheet and the valuation seems okay. Importantly, their operations have been strong. This week, the company announced a new CEO who will take his role in mid-January. I don’t know much about him, but he spent two decades at British American Tobacco, which owns a large amount of OGI. The stock has pulled back a lot and is down 0.6% in 2025. I include it in my model portfolio at 11.9%.
- Tilray Brands: I am not a fan of this company at all, and they have zero involvement in the state-regulated U.S. cannabis market. I thought they were silly to be chasing MedMen and am glad that their investment was fully written off. The recent hemp products ban, which will take effect next year, dents an effort that they have been making with THC beverages. I liked it a lot when it was below $1 earlier this year, as I expressed here, but I don’t care for it now. The stock will be reverse-split after the close on Monday. I have no problem with this at all, but many investors do not like reverse-splits. TLRY closed at $1.03, but it announced the reverse-split after the close. It is down 21.8% year-to-date.
- Village Farms: I loved it earlier this year, and I loved it when they made their big move in May to divest their produce business. The stock has gone up too much in my view up 418.2% year-to-date), and it is not widely followed by Wall Street. The company has not provided any guidance, but the estimates by analysts seem really high. I think that many are excited about their potential victory in Texas medical cannabis market, which is in the process of expanding from 3 licensed producers to 15, with news out for VFF on 12/1. This Texan is excited about the program changes and the expansion of producers, but I am not yet excited about the potential financial impact, which may eat into cash and will not be recognized on the income statement. Note that MSOS has purchased a position (in the summer, ahead of the potential rescheduling news). The ETF currently holds 3.5 million shares, with the position at 2.2% of the ETF, though it sold 2% of its shares when it was hit with redemptions last week.
I do write a lot at Seeking Alpha about the Canadian LPs, and you can always look at my articles there for more detail. This past weekend, I boosted my rating on Organigram from Hold to Buy and reduced my rating on Village Farms from Sell to Strong Sell. Last week, I upgraded Canopy Growth from Strong Sell to Hold after having been very negative for quite a long time. In late September, I downgraded Tilray Brands to Strong Sell. That one rallied sharply on their Q1 report a few days later, but has crashed. In mid-September, I initiated coverage on SNDL with a Sell. At 420 Investor, I include 5 Canadian LPs on my Focus List, including Canopy Growth, Cronos Group, Organigram, Tilray Brands and Village Farms.
Canadian LPs are doing better than many other sectors. I have written positively about the cannabis REITs, and they look like a better bet to me. I think that investors need to be careful with the Canadian LPs, as they are no longer as cheap as they used to be and have been boosted by the enthusiasm for MSOs since the potential rescheduling was announced in August, though rescheduling will not impact them. I do hope for improvements in Canada’s taxation, distribution and regulation, as these changes could help the LPs. Until then, I suggest caution.
I wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving!
Sincerely,
Alan
New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we published this past week:
Exclusives
Canadian Cannabis Sales Slipped in September from Record Level
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