You’re reading this week’s edition of the New Cannabis Ventures weekly newsletter, which we have been publishing since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve as well as links to the week’s most important news. We no longer send these by email as we did in the past, but we post this and all of the newsletters on our website here.
Friends,
The cannabis sector finished 2025 declining slightly. The New Cannabis Ventures Global Cannabis Stock Index, which began at the end of 2012 with a value of 100, fell 4.2% in 2025 to 6.59. This was the 5th straight annual decline.
The AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (NYSE Arca: MSOS) rallied last year, gaining 20.5%, but it has declined a lot since the end of 2020, when it was $36.50. The 5-year return to $4.72 was -87.1%. During that time, the Global Cannabis Stock Index plunged 85.2%, slightly less of a decline.
In 2026 so far, the Global Cannabis Stock Index is unchanged. MSOS, which shot up in December, has dropped 3.0% to $4.58. After the big run-up last year, investors aren’t likely too worried yet. Perhaps they shouldn’t be, as rescheduling is still on track, and, if it goes through, it is very bullish due to the elimination of 280E taxation. Of course, it remains unknown if rescheduling will actually take place and, if so, when it will take place.
Investors or traders rushed in over the past few years to MSOS on rescheduling hopes. The last lift in December had massive volume that exceeded the volume in August, when the news of potential rescheduling under Trump first hit. It was heavier also than when MSOS plunged after the elections in late 2024. So far in 2026, the volume has been quite low, as can be seen in this six-month chart:
MSOS is still trading above the price on 12/11 as are most of its holdings. It is also trading up more than 100% from its all-time low set last year near $2. To me, while the stock has dropped a lot from its recent peak, falling 36.8% from the intraday high on 12/18, it appears that it could keep declining. The recent decline has not stimulated buyers. In my model portfolio at 420 Investor, I am very underexposed to the MSOs relative to the Global Cannabis Stock Index with just 6.6% in two MSOs compared to the index having 25.9%.
The ETF, which is slightly leveraged, is loaded with three MSOs, as I have discussed before, Curaleaf (OTC: CURLF), Green Thumb Industries (OTC: GTBIF) and Trulieve (OTC: TCNNF) at 67.7% of MSOS. Curaleaf, which has a big debt challenge, has dropped 1.4% so far in 2026 and has moved from the second-largest position to the third-largest. Trulieve, which is the current largest holding, has dropped 5.6%, while GTI, now the second-largest, has rallied 2.0%. MSOS has not bought or sold the shares of any of these MSOs so far in 2026.
I have watched MSOS since its day 1, which was in late 2020. While I have been and remain highly critical of the way it is run, I praised them for their early efforts. Sadly, there are no cannabis investment funds including ETFs that are anywhere close to MSOS in terms of assets under management. The ETF has grown its share-count dramatically over the past year despite a recent small reduction. Investors need to understand that if it gets hit with redemptions, it could pressure the MSO sub-sector and the price of MSOS.
It’s very possible that cannabis will be rescheduled with 280E taxation ending. It is also possible that the large MSOs will not have to pay the 280E taxes from the past that they have not paid. If 280E goes away and the prior obligations disappear, it will be very positive for MSOs, and this will likely take away the potential redemptions of MSOS. Of course, if 280E sticks around, the traders that have piled into MSOS will have problems finding new buyers. No chart will answer this question about the future of 280E.
I continue to suggest that cannabis investors look beyond just the MSO part of the market. I have discussed several times and also recently that the cannabis REITs make more sense, and I have high exposure to two of them in my model portfolio. There are other ancillary names that should have upside if 280E goes away for their customers but less downside if it remains. Canadian LPs can make sense too. 280E taxation makes no sense and should go away, but it seems premature to assume that it will.
Sincerely,
Alan
New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we published this past week:
Exclusives
Cannabis Sales Growth Was Slow in December
Florida’s Medical Cannabis Market Is Declining
Capital Raises
Canopy Growth Recapitalizes Balance Sheet
To get real-time updates, follow Alan on X.com. Share and discover industry news with like-minded people on the largest cannabis investor and entrepreneur group on LinkedIn.
View the Public Cannabis Company Revenue & Income Tracker, which ranks the top revenue producing cannabis stocks.
Stay on top of some of the most important communications from public companies by viewing upcoming cannabis investor calendar.
