Picking the Right Cannabis Stocks Has Become Increasingly Important

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Each Friday, we evaluate the price performance of dozens of cannabis stocks by comparing similar companies for subscribers at our premium subscription service, 420 Investor. We discussed this process a bit over a year ago, describing the different sub-sectors that make up the overall cannabis sector.

Today, we break down the market somewhat differently, including 4 tiers of multi-state operators, 3 tiers of ancillary companies, 3 tiers of Canadian licensed producers, Canadian retailers, CBD companies, international operators and biotech companies, for a total of 14 different sub-sectors.

Historically, cannabis stocks have tended to move in unison for the most part, but we suggested last June that we expect returns to vary increasingly from one another, and that has certainly been the case in 2021 thus far.

Since the beginning of Q2, the New Cannabis Ventures Global Cannabis Stock Index has declined by 15.8%, which follows a 41% rally in Q1. While the largest MSOs have returned a similar amount on average since the end of March, the returns have varied greatly, with Green Thumb Industries down just 0.5% but Trulieve down 28%:

Similarly, returns have varied substantially among the second tier of MSOs in terms of revenue, with Harvest benefiting from the Trulieve acquisition:

For the largest Canadian LPs, the returns have varied significantly, with Canopy Growth falling almost twice as much as Cronos Group:

A particularly stark contrast is in the Ancillary-Financial subsector, with Innovative Industrial Properties up 19% but Power REIT down 18%:

While Power REIT has trailed the index slightly and its peers more substantially, it has far outpaced even the best returning CBD company:

We have shared just a few sub-sectors and over only a single time-frame, but the variability of returns is quite apparent looking beyond our examples. Evaluating the year-to-date returns for the largest cannabis companies by market cap further illustrates the point. Of the 14 companies that have a market cap of $2.4 billion or more, only three have outpaced the 18.7% return of the Global Cannabis Stock Index. Of the remaining 11, 7 have positive returns but trail the index, and 4 have actually declined:

These largest 14 companies have lagged the overall market as they have averaged a return of 11% year-to-date, another sign that investors need to focus on stock selection rather than just bet on the largest companies. Smaller companies have provided higher returns in 2021 on average, but picking the right stocks has been important. Being in stocks like GW Pharma and Harvest Health & Recreation prior to the announcements of their acquisition bids certainly has helped provide above-index returns.

The fundamentals and dynamics of the sub-sectors and the stocks within them vary more than ever. Not surprisingly, then, we are seeing variability in stock returns. In our view, cannabis investors are well served to spend time analyzing individual securities rather than taking a more passive approach, such as picking the largest stocks.

Cannabis Stock Research, News and Model Portfolios

Get the facts and be ready for important milestones and catalysts with a subscription to Alan Brochstein’s 420 Investor, the longest running due diligence platform trusted by cannabis investors for over 7 years. The primary goal of 420 Investor is to provide professional, real-time, objective information about the top cannabis companies in the market in order to help investors Capitalize on Cannabis™.

New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is some of the most interesting business content from this week:

To get real-time updates download our free mobile app for Android or Apple devices, like our Facebook page, or follow Alan on Twitter. Share and discover industry news with like-minded people on the largest cannabis investor and entrepreneur group on LinkedIn.

Get ahead of the crowd! If you are a cannabis investor and find value in our Sunday newsletters, subscribe to 420 Investor, Alan’s comprehensive stock due diligence platform since 2013. Gain immediate access to real-time and in-depth information and market intelligence about the publicly traded cannabis sector, including daily videos, weekly chats, model portfolios, a community forum and much more.

Use the suite of professionally managed NCV Cannabis Stock Indices to monitor the performance of publicly-traded cannabis companies within the day or over longer time-frames. In addition to the comprehensive Global Cannabis Stock Index, we offer a family of indices to track Canadian licensed producers as well as the American Cannabis Operator Index and the Ancillary Cannabis Index.

View the Public Cannabis Company Revenue & Income Tracker, which ranks the top revenue producing cannabis stocks that generate industry sales of more than US$12.5M per quarter.

Stay on top of some of the most important communications from public companies by viewing upcoming cannabis investor earnings conference calls.

Discover upcoming new listings with the curated Cannabis Stock IPOs and New Issues Tracker.


Alan & Joel

Exclusive article by Alan Brochstein, CFA
Alan Brochstein, CFA
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as founder of online community 420 Investor, the first and still largest due diligence platform focused on the publicly-traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. At New Cannabis Ventures, he is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before shifting his focus to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst following over two decades in research and portfolio management. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 at Seeking Alpha, where he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and a frequent source to the media, including the NY Times, the Wall Street Journal, Fox Business, and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan: Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn | Email

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