Cannabis Companies Reduce 2022 Growth Expectations After Challenging Q4

The Public Cannabis Company Revenue & Income Tracker, managed by New Cannabis Ventures, ranks the top revenue producing cannabis companies. This data-driven, fact-based tracker will continually update based on new financial filings so that readers can stay up to date. Companies must file with the SEC or SEDAR and be current to be considered for inclusion.

When we launched this resource in May 2019, companies with quarterly revenue in excess of US$2.5 million qualified. As the industry has scaled and as more companies have gone public, we have raised the minimum several times subsequently, including a move to US$5 million in October 2019, to US$7.5 million in June 2020, to US$10 million in November 2020 and US$12.5 million in August 2021.

Due to the rapid growth in the cannabis industry, we raised the minimum to US$25 million (C$31.5 million) to qualify for what we now call the senior list and introduced a junior list with a minimum of US$12.5 million (C$15.6 million) in September 2021. At the time of our last update in mid-March, 36 companies qualified for inclusion on the senior list, including 30 filing in U.S. dollars and 6 in the Canadian currency. The junior list now includes 11 reporting in U.S. dollars and 5 in Canadian dollars. On a combined basis, the Public Cannabis Company Revenue & Income Tracker now includes 53 companies. Since our last update, Agrify (NASDAQ: AGFY) has joined the senior list of companies that report in American dollars, now 31, and IM Cannabis (CSE: IMCC) (NASDAQ: IMCC) has joined the junior list of companies that report in Canadian dollars. We expect to add additional companies in the months ahead, and, due to pending or recently completed mergers, we anticipate some removals as well. We note that Intercure (TASE: INCR) (NASDAQ: INCR), which reports in the Israeli currency, qualifies for the junior list, but we haven’t yet added it due to its different reporting currency.

In May 2019, we added an additional metric, “Adjusted Operating Income”, as we detailed in our newsletter. The calculation takes the reported operating income and adjusts it for any changes in the fair value of biological assets required under IFRS accounting. We believe that this adjustment improves comparability for the companies across IFRS and GAAP accounting. We note that often operating income can include one-time items like stock compensation, inventory write-downs or public listing expenses, and we recommend that readers understand how these non-cash items can impact quarterly financials. Many companies are moving from IFRS to U.S. GAAP accounting, which will reduce our need to make adjustments. Please note that our rankings include only actual reported revenue and not pro forma revenue. We also note that companies with non-cannabis operations must provide segment-level financial reports that detail not only revenue but also operating profit to be have their operating profit included in the tracker. Currently, Jazz Pharma (NASDAQ: JAZZ) and Tilray (TSX: TLRY) (NASDAQ: TLRY) aren’t providing this information.

Since our last update, several companies have reported, including some of the largest MSOs. Note that we recently provided an update covering reports from the first part of the month that suggested that cannabis companies were seeing increased pricing pressure. Since then, Trulieve (CSE: TRUL) (OTC: TCNNF), Cresco Labs (CSE: CL) (OTC: CRLBF), Columbia Care (CSE: CCHW) (NEO: CCHW) (OTC: CCHWF), Ayr Wellness (CSE: AYR.A) (OTC: AYRWF), Jushi Holdings (CSE: JUSH) (OTC: JUSHF), Greenlane (NASDAQ: GNLN), TILT Holdings (NEO: TILT) (OTC: TLLTF) and TerrAscend (CSE: TER) (OTC: TRSSF) are among the companies that have reported Q4 financials. Now ten companies are generating quarterly revenue in excess of $100 million. Trulieve, Columbia Care, Ayr Wellness, Jushi and TILT Holdings all provided full year guidance or Q4 2022 guidance that was below the prior expectations of the analysts, extending on the trend from earlier in the month. Regulatory delays, soft demand early in the year and pricing pressure were commonly cited as factors driving the reduced outlooks. Most companies see the second half of the year as being substantially stronger than the first half.

American Dollar Reporting – Public Cannabis Company Revenue Tracker

 

In April, Verano Holdings (CSE: VRNO) (OTC: VRNO) and Tilray (TSX: TLRY) (NASDAQ: TLRY) are among the larger companies reporting financials. According to Sentieo, Verano’s Q4 revenue is expected to increase 183% from a year ago to $210 million, up slightly from Q3. Analysts expect adjusted EBITDA to be $93 million. Analysts expect Tilray to see slight sequential growth in its fiscal Q3 to $159 million. Data from Hifyre suggests that its adult-use sales in Canada plunged relative to Q2. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be $13 million.

High Tide (TSXV: HITI) (NASDAQ: HITI), HEXO Corp (TSX: HEXO) (NASDAQ) and Nova Cannabis (TSX: NOVC) (OTC: NVACF) reported since our last update. For each of them, M&A has helped boost the growth compared to a year ago. High Tide revenue exceeded expectations, while HEXO fell short. The massive operating loss was mainly due to asset impairments. Nova Cannabis revenue was just under the single-analyst estimate.

Canadian Dollar Reporting – Public Cannabis Company Revenue Tracker

Organigram (TSX: OGI) (NASDAQ: OGI) will be reporting its fiscal Q2 in April. According to Sentieo, the company’s revenue is expected to increase 116% to C$31.67 million, which would elevate the company to the senior list. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be -C$1.63 million.

For those interested in more information about companies reporting in April, we publish comprehensive earnings previews for subscribers at 420 Investor, including for Focus List members mentioned here Organigram, Tilray and Verano Holdings.

Visit the Public Cannabis Company Revenue Tracker to track and explore the complete list of qualifying companies. We have recently created a way for our readers to access our library of Revenue Tracker articles. For our readers who are interested in staying on top of scheduled earnings calls in the sector, we have have created and continually update the Cannabis Investor Earnings Conference Call Calendar.

Get ahead of the crowd by signing up for 420 Investor, the largest & most comprehensive premium subscription service for cannabis traders and investors since 2013.

Exclusive article by Alan Brochstein, CFA
Alan Brochstein, CFA
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as founder of online community 420 Investor, the first and still largest due diligence platform focused on the publicly-traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. At New Cannabis Ventures, he is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before shifting his focus to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst following over two decades in research and portfolio management. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 at Seeking Alpha, where he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and a frequent source to the media, including the NY Times, the Wall Street Journal, Fox Business, and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan: Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn | Email

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