Bold Moves Pay Off for These Cannabis Companies

This is a copy of the April 7th edition of our weekly Newsletter, which we have been publishing since October 2015.

Friends,

As we shared at the beginning of the year, we anticipate consolidation among multi-state operators (MSOs) in the U.S. to be a big story in 2019, and, with two massive deals already announced in the past few weeks, we expect this trend to intensify. This week, Cresco Labs announced an all-stock deal to buy publicly-traded Origin House, giving it a leading platform in the key California market. Four weeks ago, Harvest Health & Recreation announced the all-stock acquisition of privately-held Verano Holdings, giving it a much larger and deeper footprint. Both deals were valued at about US$850 million.

There are many reasons to expect the consolidation to continue, but the easiest is that the market is enthusiastically embracing these deals, sending the stocks of the acquiring companies to all-time highs. Harvest, which had already worked its way out of the Q4 hole, was at C$8.59, just below the C$8.75 go-public price, the evening before the deal was announced and traded as high C$14.50, a new all-time high, four weeks later:

Cresco Labs was on a tear going into the acquisition, closing the day before at C$15.05, which was well above the Q4 lows and the go-public price of C$8.50. During the week, it traded to a new all-time high of C$17.14:

In contrast to the large strategic investments into Canopy Growth and Cronos Group by Constellation Brands and Altria, respectively, deals that have pushed down the stocks of the strategic investors despite their investments soaring subsequently, the MSO consolidators are being rewarded for their deals, and this is likely to encourage other MSOs to to consider following.

Let’s be clear, though, as boosting the price short-term is not what Harvest and Cresco Labs were likely seeking. Like their peers, Harvest and Cresco are looking to take advantage of the land-grab taking place. MSOs with scale and operating efficiency are in a position to build national brands for products or for retail. The largest MSOs will have a lower cost of capital, another factor driving consolidation.

While large publicly-traded MSOs are likely to continue to consolidate through the acquisition of both public and private companies, we think that they will face some competition from CSE-listed Canadian LPs (or those wishing to give up TSX or TSXV listings, at least for now) looking to enter the market or, like TerrAscend, to expand their presence. We think that the consolidation trends favor private companies that have built operations in key geographies, especially California, where we note that many MSOs haven’t made big moves yet due to the market being in regulatory transition, but we won’t be surprised to see more large deals that bring together large publicly-traded companies to create even bigger companies looking for operational efficiencies, brand expansion and a lower cost of capital.


Vinzan International Inc. is a licensed cannabis trader headquartered in Toronto ON providing THC / CBD and ancillary products including dried flower, bulk resins and white label finished goods with consistent, timely delivery in support of manufacturers in legal markets worldwide.

To learn more about Vinzan International, a client of New Cannabis Ventures, visit the company’s page that we maintain on their behalf and click the green Get More Info button.


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Sincerely,

Alan & Joel

Exclusive article by Alan Brochstein, CFA
Alan Brochstein, CFA
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as founder of online communities 420 Investor, the first and still largest due diligence platform focused on the publicly-traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. At New Cannabis Ventures, he is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before shifting his focus to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst following over two decades in research and portfolio management. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 at Seeking Alpha, where he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and a frequent source to the media, including the NY Times, the Wall Street Journal, Fox Business, and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan: Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn | Email

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